Older people and the NHS reforms
Starting point: older people are the main issue in the NHS reforms
There’s been a flurry of activity on the NHS Reforms, which have been becalmed by a listening exercise after a lot of political and professional protest. Of course, it’s a Health and Social Care Bill that’s been held up, and is apparently going to be reconsidered in House of Commons Committee in (probably) July, but the concern about social care has been sotto voce; the main social care element is to get rid of the GSCC. However, do not be deceived: all this has considerable significance for the political position of social care, and probably also of palliative care.
Let’s start from a social care/palliative care view of the issues. The big client group in both areas is older people; and it’s a growing client group. Not growing quickly, but by 2030 the post-war baby boomers will be well into the age range that uses health and social care in a big way (myself among them if I last that long – I’m planning to be a charmingly dotty old social care client – this is the best personality style to get people to provide services for you). As we saw when looking at the Nuffield study last week, typical usage of social care in the last year of life grows slowly in the latter phase of your old age, and in the last few months you become very expensive because you get lots of in-patient treatments. So it is cheap to provide for most people until they get near the end, although there will be some hips, knees, heart bypasses and boomps-a-daisy (injuries through falls) to be coped with in the meantime, but that can be a bit more planned and strung out. Then if you do the end of life well (look back at my posts on the end-of-life social care framework) you can stop a lot of emergency admissions to hospital care and cut down the costs of healthcare substantially and everyone would still think the care was wonderful.
Unfortunately, although voters would doubtless be very pleased to see improved social care, the political problem there is that people have to contribute to the cost of it and don’t like whittling away their family’s wealth in doing so. They much prefer an NHS model of free care, but are realising that this is not possible. So they don’t like to think about the government spending the money on social care, even though this would be the best option for most people. they want to have as much through the NHS as possible. The political problem has pushed back genuine integration of social care into this legislation because we are waiting for the Dilnot report in the next few months, which is going to have yet another go at suggesting how to get round the social care costs issue. Until that one is sorted out, you cannot have a rational discussion about where we’re going with NHS care, because the only rational way to think about it is in tandem with social care for older people, particularly those who are nearing the end of life.
But even so, the reality is that for the NHS, as well as social care, the big client group of odler people will mainly need community and primary healthcare from their GPs and a modicum of social care for a minority. Also, a lot of mentally ill, learning and physically disabled people have long-term care needs, which are relatively expensive because they’re long-term but are fairly predictable and do not cost a lot per person. These are the groups of people who the NHS should be concentrating on. However because the voters think that what they need to worry about is the hi-tech care they get if they are in a road accident or have a heart attack or some other serious illness when young, and they want to be sure that all the drugs and clever doctor things are available pronto from their local hospital, we are getting all this suspicion about these plans. It is clear that it would be fine it they got them more efficiently from a less local hospital that has properly geared up emergency department to do the skilled job of dealing with these occasional problems, but that feels a bit less certain, and the picture of the local place closing raises insecurity.
It may seem impossibly romantic to hanker after your local NHS hospital, but actually I wonder if people who think this way are reflecting a genuine preference that we should be thinking about. Lord Darzi (remember him? a doctor recruited as a minister to support New Labour’s attempt to promote local care) had an idea of community-based polyclinics for London and beyond which does reflect the need for a well-planned system of local care. My friends in European countries are not so worried about local general hospitals, happily accepting the regional specialist provision, because they have access to nearly everything but the seriously hi-tech quite locally.
Look at the mortality statistics: mostly people don’t die between 1 and 65. And, looking at the budgets, mostly they cost the NHS very little until they are in their upper 70s. So, it is a reasonable aim to save money by putting the clever doctor things a bit further away, getting us fitter and giving us all statins so that we don’t have heart attacks. Unfortunately, the voting public seems to think this is all a trick to take away the comfort blanket of their local NHS hospital. We should go back to Lord Darzi, because local general-purpose treatment and investigation provision would be genuinely welcomed, even though the hi-tech doctors don’t like it – it’s not whizzy enough for them. But my two recent cataract operations did not, I fancy, need to be done within the boundary of a large general hospital. A polyclinic would have been ideal.
So, the main problems that lead Lansley, the Secretary of State for Health, the coalition and people such as Alan Milburn (the former New Labour Health Secretary who emphasised competition when he was in power) to want substantial reforms are to deal with the real issues of:
- demographic change (a growing population of older people making more extensive demands on the NHS), and
- medical advance (the demand for ever more costly medical interventions as the doctors get cleverer at managing more serious illness).
There are some doubts about the importance of these. For a start, the big increases in the older population are a decade or more away, although o courfse, we have to work up to them. More important, if community care and end-of-life services for older people were really made to work, the demand on hospitals would be much lessened. And research that allowed doctors to manage older people’s many physical conditions better over the long-term are likely to reduce the cost of long-term conditions to the NHS, because most of it would be done in the community or in care homes. So what the Bill should actually be about is improving social care, including a good dollop of effective advance care planning for the end of life, with a little bit of NHS fiddling around the edges. But the political commitment to the NHS means a focus on convincing people that the nasty Tories not going to take away the beloved local hospital, that most people are probably not going to use much. As well as that, their eneds could probably be met by specilaised regional centres and better local investigation and treatment.
Substantial increases in much cheaper age-proofing of general public and commercial services, so that older people could carry on under their own steam for much longer than they can now would delay and reduce demand for expensive social and health care. Really effective social care provision would also reduce the demand on expensive hospital provision. The reason for the focus on GP control in the NHS reforms was that the GPs are the centre of providing for the massive number of people needing long-term care, most of which can be provided in the community, and a lot more of which could be provided if we stopped sending people to expensive hospitals. Incentivising GPs to provide community health care for older people would hold back the rising costs of NHS hospitals. It was just this that the hospital doctors and nurses feared: their status, and some of the elite status of medicine over the denigrated social care comes from the scientific status of constant medical advance. We should be spending some of this research money finding out how we can improve community provision for long-term care.
So what’s been going on? There have been three events within the last week or so:
- The Prime Minister made a speech confirming the political support for rowing back on the complained-about aspects of the reforms
- The NHS Future Forum reported on the ‘listening’ exercise, in which views on how to adjust the reforms were collected
- The government responded officially to these, accepting the main import of them. Of course, we don’t know the detail of how they’ll change the Bill to take account of them. Also, there have been some more individual reactions from Lansley and from Alan Milburn.
Cameron accepting the main changes
Cameron’s speech confirming the acceptance of the main points of the proposed changes, given on 7th June 2011, in advance of the Report of the Future Commission being published, is at:
His argument is for getting the best possible value for money and big variations in quality across the country. These current problems are forerunners of significant difficulties of over-stretch if we don’t plan for larger demands from older people and medical advance in the future. As people have thought about it, there is a lot of support for these plans, but we need to get them right…’our vision of an NHS that is more productive, more patient-friendly, more professionally-driven and more diverse is clear’.
On competition: I do believe competition is a good thing. But not as an end in itself. It is a means to give doctors more choice to get the best possible care for their patients, and for patients to have that choice too. It is a means of bringing in fresh thinking, new ideas, different ways of doing things that deliver better and better value for money. Put simply: competition is one way we can make things work better for patients.
On the pace of change: We will make sure local commissioning only goes ahead when groups of GPs are good and ready, and we will give them the help they need to get there.
On integrated care: patients…are keen to make sure that whatever happens their care is joined up, that they don’t have to put up with the frustrations they have today – with different appointments in different places, with different people, all to discuss the same thing…professionals who have dedicated their lives to the NHS who are desperate that clinical decision making should replace bureaucratic decision making …but worry that only GPs will have responsibility and that will lead to a fundamental break and juncture between primary and secondary care…
Hospital doctors and nurses will be involved in clinical commissioning. We will also introduce clinical senates where groups of doctors and healthcare professionals come together to take an overview of the integration of care across a wide area. And of course, where effective networks of clinicians already exist, we will support them, not reinvent the wheel…Monitor will now have a new duty to support the integration of services – whether that’s between primary and secondary care, mental and physical care, or health and social care.
On waiting times: Patients tell me just how big an impact the time they wait for their healthcare can have on their well-being, and how they worry that by scrapping the old targets we might lose control of waiting times…The whole reason why transparency and choice are so important is so that patients can hold the health service to account and get the care they demand, where they want, when they want. That’s why we’re releasing a whole raft of information so you can compare and contrast different providers within the NHS – and make your decisions based no real solid evidence. And that includes evidence and information on waiting times. But we’re not going to leave anything to chance, especially as our changes are working their way through the system. So we’re keeping the 18 week limit…And we’re not going to lose control of waiting times in A&E either.
On NHS budgets: There will be no cuts in NHS spending…This year, and the year after, and the year after that, the money going into the NHS will actually increase in real terms with £11.5 billion more in cash for the NHS in 2015 than in 2010.
But…every year without modernisation the costs escalate. Demand pressures increase, driven by an ageing population and drug and alcohol abuse. At the same time, there are supply-side pressures too, driven by new and expensive drugs and technologies. We can’t pretend that the extra money we are putting in will be enough to meet the challenges. We need modernization of the NHS to do that.
The listening exercise
The NHS Future Forum reports and documents are at:
There is also a website that offers some criticisms of the Future Forum proposals:
http://healthandcare.dh.gov.uk/category/conversations/future-forum
The introductory material mentions voluntary organisations and hospices as having a clear role:
To provide this choice for people at the end of life will require an integrated approach in health and social care with greater involvement of the third sector, including the hospice movement. (p 8: Summary; Chair’s letter to the Secretary of State)
There’s also a comment on integration with social care, using the Health and Well-being Boards (p 12):
Local government and NHS staff see huge potential in health and wellbeing boards becoming the generators of health and social care integration and in ensuring the needs of local populations and vulnerable people are met. The legislation should strengthen the role and influence of health and wellbeing boards in this respect, giving them stronger powers to require commissioners of both local NHS and social care services to account if their commissioning plans are not in line with the joint health and wellbeing strategy.
Avoiding boundary disputes is also included (p 12):
Better integration of commissioning across health and social care should be the ambition for all local areas. To support the system to make progress towards this, the boundaries of local commissioning consortia should not normally cross those of local authorities, with any departure needing to be clearly justified. The Government and the NHS Commissioning Board should enable a set of joint commissioning demonstration sites between health, social care and public health and evaluate their effectiveness.
There are five main areas of discussion:
Choice and competition – broadly it promotes the availability of choice, in the context of patients’ and public security that local services are good. Since in an emergency, you have to go to the local provision and most people do not want to travel massively, choice about where to go is not so relevant as being able to influence the quality and style of the provision you experience. For me, it is a relief to see this point made, when the private sector commentators are all keen to get you to go to their local private hospital. Most people are perfectly well aware than in an emergency, the best place is the NHS. Of course the attitude is different for residential social care – people have got used to private sector provdiers there. Rather than the finance watchdog, Monitor, encouraging competition, the Future Forum says it should ensure that people should have the right to challenge commissioners if they are not getting adequate choice about how they are being provided for. Cherry-picking by private providers that would mean that integrated local services are not viable should be unacceptable.
Patient involvement and public accountability – it argues for integration as the main objective, delivered by patients having a strong say in how they are cared for, and stronger public accountability for the quality of provision at local and national level. Doubters think that health and wellbeing boards and local government generally are being cut so much there is little chance of htis happening.
Clinical advice and leadership – it should be wider, thus allowing the hospital doctors and nurses (no mention of social care) to stymie seriously community-oriented priorities.
Education and training – this is included to respond to problems about how the system will integrate with medical education; the comment is really ‘don’t know, we’ll have to work on it’. No attempt of course to connect this with training needs in social care.
The pace of change – set up the NHS Commissioning Board to give clear leadership, but don’t press too hard to get everything done by deadlines.
Government acceptance of the Future Forum recommendations and afterwards…
You can read the positive announcement (and a statement that the Future Forum is going to carry on listening) here:
As usual, the King’s Fund has a good analysis of the announcements:
http://www.kingsfund.org.uk/current_projects/the_health_and_social_care_bill/nhs_future_forum.html
and Anna Dixon on their blog makes some useful comments:
http://www.kingsfund.org.uk/blog/nhs_privatisation.html
They also have a chunky report on the role of the voluntary sector in the reforms, done with NCVO. I’m going to return to this:
http://www.kingsfund.org.uk/publications/voluntary_sector.html
The Financial Times has a good in-depth briefing (but be careful how many times you click on the FT website; after a while their paywall looms up to hit you).
http://www.ft.com/indepth/nhs-reform
A useful briefing by the NHS Confederation (the health organisations’ organisation) on the government response and what they thought. Generally, they were pleased by the government’s report.
A video of Lansley addressing GPs yesterday, carried by the Telegraph from ITN, makes clear that GPs are going to be well on the way to their commissioning role by 2013, even if they’re not quite there yet. Clinical commissioning groups will cover all England by the due date, even if they’re not fully functioning. This was probably inevitable anyway before the pause for listening. So the claimed slowing up of the process until people are good and ready is largely non-existent.
Link to the Lansley video: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/health/healthnews/8576849/Andrew-Lansley-NHS-reform-consultation-not-a-PR-exercise.html
Alan Milburn’s Daily Telegraph article attacking the government’s proposed changes to the reforms is at:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/8578226/This-NHS-debacle-sets-us-back-a-generation.html
Milburn’s analysis is that quietly going ahead on the present track would have delivered many of the improvements, but that Lansley was inept in claiming that there would be a revolution in competition and a ‘free-for-all’ in who was allowed to provide NHS care, encouraging private providers. If we accept this judgment, it is easy to guess that Lansley might have done this to promote his position politically in the right-wing of the Conservative Party. More important, probably he actually believes that this would be a better way of running the NHS; lots of people do.
For people who are doubtful about how the private sector is going to react to the possible loss of opportunities for profit, I also like this Spinwatch diagram, which shows how people with political influence and private sector organisations favouring private sector involvement in the NHS are connected:
http://www.powerbase.info/index.php/File:Private_Healthcare_Network_SpinWatch.jpg
Conclusion
Actually, I don’t think the private sector has much to worry about. I don’t think competition red in tooth and claw was ever going to operate, and I think Lansley was ramping this up for political reasons, and has come a cropper as a result. There will continue to be steady increases in competition where it makes sense and in some places where it doesn’t. It is clear that the proposed changes are going to make the commissioning groups more difficult to manage, but it is clear that the process of reorganising is going ahead apace. I recently gave a talk to some pct managers, some of whom could remember their new job title, some of whom had been made redundant and some of whom had new jobs but didn’t know what they were going to be doing. Already, we’re beyond the point where the present system can carry on, so the question really is: how can we make the new system work well?



